Matthew Gardner: Are we headed for another housing bubble?


As a Seattle Real Estate Agent, I’m often asked, "Are we headed for another housing bubble?" On today’s episode, I sit down with someone who can answer that question and more.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate and is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 28 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. He also contributes regularly to Reuters’, Home Price Forecast Survey and Zillow’s Home Price Expectation Survey.

We dive deep into topics like:

  • How Trump’s economic policies are affecting our local and national economy

  • How the Seattle business ecosystem and culture are affected by our current policies

  • How we, as a city, are embracing upzoning and paving the way for our economic future

When does Matthew think you’re ready to buy a home?

You’re ready if you can answer yes to these three questions . 

  1. Are you comfortable with the debt level you’re taking on?

  2. Are you comfortable in your career?

  3. Will you be comfortable living there or renting the home for at least 7 years?

Key Takeaways from the Podcast:

  • From 1965-2003, on average, 65% of households owned the home they lived in. In 1992 that all changed when Bill Clinton told the nation, “Every American has the right to own a home.” This created policies that allowed sub-prime loans and home ownership significantly started to rise.

  • At the moment, Trump’s de-regulation does not have a negative impact on housing. This is because American loans have a better credit quality today than they did in 2008 and banks have made it more difficult to get a loan today than it was in 2004.

  • There is less mortgage debt today than there was in 2008 due to buyers putting more money down on their mortgages.

  • Housing prices are rising because states artificially limit land supply which makes housing more expensive and because we value our time and will pay more to be closer to where we need to be.

  • Housing prices are impacting our economic growth due to housing unaffordability. Matthew feast that businesses won’t want to start their companies here due to the high wages needed to pay qualified employees.

  • We will likely not break into 5% barrier for mortgage rates until closer to 2020-2021.

  • Local millennials are staying in Seattle to continue their careers. Their parents are doing the same to stay close to their kids and grandkids. This means there is not a mass migration away from the city and housing prices continue to rise.

  • MHA upzoning only changed 6% of single family land in Seattle. This will not make a major impact. 

Is it a bad time to buy or sell your Washington home?

Download Matthew’s Wester Washington Real Estate Market Update to ensure you’re the most informed buyer or seller out there!

Q1 2019 |  Western WA Real Estate Market Update

Q1 2019 | Western WA Real Estate Market Update

Takeaways Continued…

  • Multi-family tax exemption is where you offset property taxes on affordable units for a period of time. This has been a great tool to increase density. When implemented in increased units by 6,000.

  • Building high rise low income housing is very expensive. Typically $750 per sqft. That’s why you see only luxury condos being built. We protest for more housing, but blame the developer for making money and expect them to cover the cost.

  • If Matthew were Mayor tomorrow, he would encourage single family zoned areas to adopt multi-family zoning and we need to double down on mass transit in order to grow the city more sustainably for the future. 

  • What can you do if you find yourself priced out of the city? Look at emerging markets that more affordable neighborhoods like Mt Baker, Burien, White Center and Othello Station that are in the 35 minute drove tome to the city. 

    Also there are markets further out that mass transit will eventually be coming to like North Seattle, Shoreline. 

  • Look at our house at your home first and an asset second. 

  • Millennials are not the renter generation, they are just delaying the purchase. 

Guest: Matthew Gardner: Website, Instagram, Facebook

Host: Tyler Davis Jones: Website, Instagram, Facebook

See how Tyler’s process has helped hundreds of people like you buy and sell their Seattle area homes.